金融发展与区域创新的交互影响

基于2008—2017年长三角地区41个地级市的数据，通过构建联立方程模型，考察金融发展与区域创新之间的交互影响，探讨两者的空间溢出效应与地区交互影响。研究发现：金融发展对区域创新的正向促进作用不受时间跨度影响，但区域创新对金融发展的影响存在时间跨度异质性，短期内区域创新对金融发展影响不确定，而长期内区域创新反向促进金融发展，忽略这种反向影响会显著高估金融发展对区域创新的促进作用；区域创新与金融发展均存在正向空间外溢性，临近地区金融发展促进本地区的区域创新，但临近地区区域创新对本地区的金融发展作用并不显著。金融发展与区域创新应当融合联动，互利共生，实现双赢。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

What makes hybrid insourcing successful: A new public–private partnership model for social welfare services

Outsourcing has been a key policy tool for delivering a range of social services, and regarded as more effective than insourcing or direct government provision. At the same time, it has also caused many delivery issues such as principal‐agent problems, a lack of policy coordination, and poor‐quality welfare services. While the pendulum continues to swing between insourcing and outsourcing, we aim to propose a new public–private partnership model called the “hybrid insourcing model” and examine which factors influence the performance of the model. In South Korea, around 2010, the local government in Namyangju City was the first to implement the “Hope Care Center model,” a kind of hybrid insourcing model, which has been praised for its innovation and widely emulated by central and local governments. Our analysis utilizes data collected between December 2017 and January 2018 from public sector employees and civilian staff in Namyangju and a comparable city, A. From this, we draw a number of implications, both for theory and for policy. We argue that, for public–private partnerships, active cooperation and equality are the biggest factors in contributing to positive performance. These work alongside leaders with a clear vision and with employees' positive attitude.     

Dynamic inference for non-Markov transition probabilities under random right censoring

The main contribution of this article is the verification of weak convergence of a general non-Markov (NM) state transition probability estimator by Titman, which has not yet been done for any other general NM estimator. A similar theorem is shown for the bootstrap, yielding resampling-based inference methods for statistical functionals. Formulas of the involved covariance functions are presented in detail. Particular applications include the conditional expected length of stay in a specific state, given occupation of another state in the past, and the construction of time-simultaneous confidence bands for the transition probabilities. The expected lengths of stay in a two-sample liver cirrhosis dataset are compared and confidence intervals for their difference are constructed. With borderline significance and in comparison to the placebo group, the treatment group has an elevated expected length of stay in the healthy state given an earlier disease state occupation. In contrast, the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimator-based confidence interval, which relies on a Markov assumption, leads to a drastically different conclusion. Also, graphical illustrations of confidence bands for the transition probabilities demonstrate the biasedness of the AJ estimator in this data example. The reliability of these results is assessed in a simulation study.     

An additive–multiplicative mean model for panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes

This paper discusses regression analysis of panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes. For the problem, a general mean model is presented that can allow both additive and multiplicative effects of covariates on the underlying point process. In addition, the proportional rates model and the accelerated failure time model are employed to describe possible covariate effects on the observation process and the dropout or follow‐up process, respectively. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equation‐based procedures are developed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a resampling approach is proposed for estimating a covariance matrix of the proposed estimator and a model checking procedure is also provided. Results from an extensive simulation study indicate that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations, and it is applied to a motivating set of real data.     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.     

基于行为系统模型的农村中学英语教师专业发展策略研究

新的英语课程标准将“发展学生的英语学科核心素养”作为根本任务，这对英语教师的专业化水平提出了更高的要求。源于社会生态系统理论的行为系统模型，可为教师专业发展研究提供科学的思考框架。在深入分析行为系统模型的理论缘起、内涵结构基础上，全面梳理了现阶段农村中学英语教师专业发展状况以及存在的问题，从微系统、中系统、外系统、宏系统四个层次分别阐述了推动农村中学英语教师专业发展的策略，对保障英语课程标准的贯彻落实、中学英语教学质量的提升等具有一定的价值和意义。     

基于多目标加权灰靶决策模型的节能服务公司选择研究

用能方对节能服务公司（Energy Service Company，ESCO）的选择关系到合同能源管理（Energy Performance Contracting，EPC）能否顺利实施。从用能方的角度，采用灰色系统理论中的多目标加权灰靶决策模型，对存在多决策目标的ESCO选择问题进行研究。通过层次分析法确定ESCO的11个决策目标的决策权数，根据综合效果测度值的比较，最终实现最优对策的选择。本文为用能方的ESCO选择问题提供了一种新的思路。     

新时代淮河经济带工业生态效率地区差异研究

构建工业生态效率投入产出指标体系,运用DEA法的CCR和BCC模型测度淮河经济带38个城市2010—2015年的工业生态效率,并对测度结果进行分析研究。指出淮河经济带整体工业生态效率水平不高且各地区差异较大,对提高淮河经济带工业生态效率提出政策建议,旨为有关部门提供理论和实际依据。     

Predicting Condom Use Outcomes via the Information Motivation Behavioral Skills Model: An Analysis of Young Black Men

Objectives: This study examines the relationships between information motivation behavioral skills model constructs and their associations with consistent condom use and condom use problems among young Black men. Methods: The authors use baseline data collected from 702 participants in a randomized controlled trial. Analyses involved path modeling and bootstrapped standard errors to estimate associations. Results: Motivation had the largest association with consistent condom use, whereas condom application skills had the largest association with condom use problems. Conclusion: Motivation is the most important predictor of consistent condom use, whereas condom application skills are the most important predictor of condom use problems.